Thailand threatens jail for defaming king

From The Times

Until six days ago when the men in uniform led him away at Bangkok airport, Harry Nicolaides was just one more flamboyant expatriate in Thailand. He visited first from Australia five years ago, and made his living as an English teacher with a bit of writing on the side.

He wrote seedy columns about his escapades with Thai bar girls and serious articles about child pornography. He described himself as “an individual who achieved brilliance with raw talent and tenacity”. He liked to wear Panama hats and cream suits.

Last Sunday, as he was about to board a flight home to Melbourne, his career came to a crashing end.

Since then he has been locked in a cell - ill, scared and suicidal, and facing a 15-year sentence on one of the gravest charges in the Thai criminal code. Mr Nicolaides, 41, is not a drug smuggler or gunrunner, like plenty of the other foreign prisoners here. The trouble in which he finds himself is over nothing more vicious than an obscure and forgotten book.

Mr Nicolaides is the latest person to be charged with lèse-majesté, the crime of defaming the monarchy. In 2005 he published a novel entitled Verisimilitude, which contains references to rumours about the “romantic entanglements and intrigues” of the family of the Thai king, Bhumibol Adulyadej, and particularly his son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn. The contentious material amounts to 103 words that could change Mr Nicolaides' life.

In an interview with The Times at the Bangkok Remand Prison yesterday, he said that he has suffered from a seizure and fever and has been unable to sleep in a cell that he shares with 90 Thai detainees, some of whom are hostile because of the charge against him.

“I've been getting icy stares from men covered in tattoos,” he said. “On the first night I would have committed suicide if I'd had the means ... I want to immediately apologise to the Royal Family for my reckless choice of words. I want to write a letter of apology, with the greatest humility.”

Mr Nicolaides says that before publication he wrote to Thailand's Bureau of the Royal Household, asking for their reaction to the contentious paragraph, and received no reply. He has raised 500,000 baht (£8,200) bail, but this was denied. It is unclear why he has been arrested this week after coming and going over the past seven months. But there seems to have been a general increase in lèse-majesté prosecutions over the past few years.

Within Thailand the law has made any discussion of the role and future of the monarchy impossibly dangerous. There seems to be no limit on what can qualify as insulting the monarchy. Jonathan Head, the BBC's Bangkok correspondent, is under investigation for lèse-majesté. Among the complaints against him is that a photograph of King Bhumibol appeared below that of a Thai politician on a page on the BBC website - rather than at the top.

Thailand's political turmoil shakes tourists and investors: analysts

Analysts predict sliding stock prices and cancellations of tourist bookings will only worsen as anti-government protests and a state of emergency in Bangkok continue.

"The current political problems will later cripple the country's economic growth," warned Kavee Chukitkasemm, assistant managing director at Kasikorn Securities.

Comment : 99% of Thai media would try to shut up their mount, because they were taking side already.

Thailand's stock market is down more than 26 percent since anti-government protests first broke out in late May, with the market's composite index losing 5.64 percent over the past week.

"The political turmoil has badly affected the travel and tourism business in Thailand," said Apichart Sankary, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, adding that the fall in numbers was already costing Thailand 400 million baht (11.7 million dollars) a day in lost revenue.

At least 13 countries have now issued warnings concerning travel to Thailand.

Prakit Chinamourphong, president of the Thai Hotel Association, said hotel cancellations had jumped since the announcement, adding that as high-season approached in October, hotels would face a critical test.

With no solution to the crisis in sight, real estate is beginning to also feel the effects, said Somchao Tanterdtham, president of the Thai Real Estate Association.

"We real estate operators have been more cautious for the past few months and delayed new projects, mostly owing to a slowdown in the global economy and high oil prices. But the political turmoil is now adding to our problems," Somchao told AFP. BANGKOK (AFP) 

Comment : Serve right my friend, some of them have been supported this mob for long time.

Thailand: What might happen next? BBC News

BBC News Page last updated at 14:31 GMT, Friday, 5 September 2008

Mr Samak holds a referendum

The prime minister has said he plans to hold a national referendum to try to defuse the crisis, asking people what they think about the ongoing protests.

But the earliest this could happen is October, because a referendum cannot be held until at least 30 days after being approved by the Senate.

Even if it gets Senate approval, and the protesters - from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - are willing to accept the delay, there is likely to be a lot of disagreement over the wording of the questions and the way the vote is organised.

Even the leader of the Senate has voiced scepticism that a referendum will be able to solve the crisis.

Comment : Referendum that will be a joke, PAD isn't accept surely because they didn't accept the election in Democracy, if the government win then they will cite that because Vote-buying.

The government backs down

If Mr Samak and his entire cabinet decide to resign, the protesters will have got what they want.

But the prime minister insists he has a legitimate mandate to govern, after winning December's elections, and is unlikely to just give up and go quietly.

Comment : PAD won't give up because they told that when the house of representative vote for the new PM which will get it from PPP absolutely, they won't accept also.

Mr Samak calls a snap election

At some point, Mr Samak may decide that events are serious enough to warrant dissolving parliament and calling another poll.

This is unlikely to solve much, though. The bulk of support for Mr Samak and his People's Power Party (PPP) comes from the rural voters who supported former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra before he was ousted in a coup and barred from politics.

These people voted for Mr Samak in December, and are likely to do so again - and if Mr Samak returns to power, the protesters are unlikely to give up their campaign.

They claim Mr Samak is just a proxy for Mr Thaksin - and will not be satisfied until he and his party leave office altogether.

The PAD leaders want a largely appointed body to govern the country instead.

Comment : Yes, I think so, PAD will be madly act until Thais who love PPP give up.

The protesters back down

It seems very unlikely that the protesters will just pack up and go home. They have brought tents, camping equipment and even portaloos to their sit-in at Government House, and show no sign of leaving.

Their resolve has been strengthened as Mr Samak's position has become ever more precarious. As well as the PAD, he is also under pressure from the main opposition party and the top army commanders.

Elsewhere in Thailand, others have joined in the anti-government cause, holding strikes and disrupting transport routes.

The protesters are therefore unlikely to give up their demands completely, but they may end up compromising on their call for the government to be replaced by a largely appointed body.

A spokesman for the PAD said on Wednesday that the group would accept anyone as an interim prime minister as long as Mr Samak went.

of PAD accepted before that they have a cost about 1 million baht per day to maintain this mob to go on, everything have a cost, you know, some people in ghetto community around Bangkok and rural was hired to protest in this mob by the mob manager,

Comment : It's not true, PAD is overtired because rainy climate is engaging them everyday and the big sponsors withdraw because they begin to know the truth that High level person isn't support PAD, they was betrayed by PAD leader all the time. This Mob have a cost,you know, Spokesman of PAD accepted before that they have a cost about 1 million per day to maintain this mob to go on, the main of this mob come from Santi Asoke group and EGAT's labour union mix with people from ghetto community around Bangkok and rural who was hired by the mob manager about 500 - 800 baht per day, others walk in by faithfulness or innocence or Fool.