Thailand: What might happen next? BBC News


BBC News Page last updated at 14:31 GMT, Friday, 5 September 2008

Mr Samak holds a referendum

The prime minister has said he plans to hold a national referendum to try to defuse the crisis, asking people what they think about the ongoing protests.

But the earliest this could happen is October, because a referendum cannot be held until at least 30 days after being approved by the Senate.

Even if it gets Senate approval, and the protesters - from the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - are willing to accept the delay, there is likely to be a lot of disagreement over the wording of the questions and the way the vote is organised.

Even the leader of the Senate has voiced scepticism that a referendum will be able to solve the crisis.

Comment : Referendum that will be a joke, PAD isn't accept surely because they didn't accept the election in Democracy, if the government win then they will cite that because Vote-buying.

The government backs down

If Mr Samak and his entire cabinet decide to resign, the protesters will have got what they want.

But the prime minister insists he has a legitimate mandate to govern, after winning December's elections, and is unlikely to just give up and go quietly.

Comment : PAD won't give up because they told that when the house of representative vote for the new PM which will get it from PPP absolutely, they won't accept also.
Mr Samak calls a snap election

At some point, Mr Samak may decide that events are serious enough to warrant dissolving parliament and calling another poll.

This is unlikely to solve much, though. The bulk of support for Mr Samak and his People's Power Party (PPP) comes from the rural voters who supported former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra before he was ousted in a coup and barred from politics.

These people voted for Mr Samak in December, and are likely to do so again - and if Mr Samak returns to power, the protesters are unlikely to give up their campaign.

They claim Mr Samak is just a proxy for Mr Thaksin - and will not be satisfied until he and his party leave office altogether.

The PAD leaders want a largely appointed body to govern the country instead.

Comment : Yes, I think so, PAD will be madly act until Thais who love PPP give up.

The protesters back down

It seems very unlikely that the protesters will just pack up and go home. They have brought tents, camping equipment and even portaloos to their sit-in at Government House, and show no sign of leaving.

Their resolve has been strengthened as Mr Samak's position has become ever more precarious. As well as the PAD, he is also under pressure from the main opposition party and the top army commanders.

Elsewhere in Thailand, others have joined in the anti-government cause, holding strikes and disrupting transport routes.

The protesters are therefore unlikely to give up their demands completely, but they may end up compromising on their call for the government to be replaced by a largely appointed body.

A spokesman for the PAD said on Wednesday that the group would accept anyone as an interim prime minister as long as Mr Samak went.

of PAD accepted before that they have a cost about 1 million baht per day to maintain this mob to go on, everything have a cost, you know, some people in ghetto community around Bangkok and rural was hired to protest in this mob by the mob manager,

Comment : It's not true, PAD is overtired because rainy climate is engaging them everyday and the big sponsors withdraw because they begin to know the truth that High level person isn't support PAD, they was betrayed by PAD leader all the time. This Mob have a cost,you know, Spokesman of PAD accepted before that they have a cost about 1 million per day to maintain this mob to go on, the main of this mob come from Santi Asoke group and EGAT's labour union mix with people from ghetto community around Bangkok and rural who was hired by the mob manager about 500 - 800 baht per day, others walk in by faithfulness or innocence or Fool.

No comments: